Research Interests

My research focuses on understanding and predicting climate variability and change. I aim to improve climate forecasts on different timescales, ranging from months to decades, by studying the fundamental processes that drive climate patterns and developing better prediction systems. Additionally, I am interested in expanding predictions to include other important factors such as soil moisture, wildfires, vegetation growth, the carbon cycle, and marine ecosystems. These predictions have practical applications in agriculture, renewable energy, water management, fisheries, and coastal planning, as they provide valuable information about climate and Earth system processes. I am dedicated to developing a research program on Earth system forecasting that provides reliable climate information for society. This program integrates three key areas: advancing our understanding of climate dynamics, evaluating climate impacts, and developing an effective forecasting system. By involving students in cutting-edge research, fostering interdisciplinary collaborations, and engaging policymakers and stakeholders, I aim to improve public education and decision-making processes while refining and expanding our research program.

Credit: Y. Chikamoto

Tropical Trans-Basin Variability

Tropical trans-basin variability (TBV) is characterized by a zonal seesaw of atmosphere-ocean variations between the Pacific and the Atlantic/Indian Ocean basins (McGregor et al., 2014; Chikamoto et al., 2015). While the tropical Pacific variability is a major driver of interannual-to-decadal climate variability in other basins (Chikamoto and Tanimoto, 2005; 2006; Chikamoto et al., 2010; Timmermann et al., 2018), the atmosphere-ocean variability in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans can also influence the Pacific through trans-basin interactions and global displacements of the Walker Circulation (Chikamoto et al., 2012; 2015; Cai et al., 2019). Unlike the El Nino Southern Oscillation, the TBV exhibits low-frequency variations on decadal timescales due to its larger spatial scales. Consequently, the TBV can be predicted up to 3 years in advance using state-of-the-art climate prediction systems. Given the global impacts of TBV on precipitation and sea-level anomalies, operational predictions of TBV can lead to improved risk assessments in sectors such as coastal and water management, forestry, and agriculture (Chikamoto et al., 2017; 2020).

Credit: F. J. Doblas-Reyes

Decadal Climate Prediction

Decadal climate prediction presents a new challenge in forecasting climate conditions for the upcoming several years. While global surface temperatures exhibit a long-term warming trend over centuries due to increases in greenhouse gases, this trend is influenced by natural climate variability on interannual-to-decadal timescales (Mochizuki et al., 2012; Tatebe et al., 2012; Chikamoto et al., 2013; Doblas-Reyes et al., 2013). Successful decadal predictions primarily rely on long-term oceanic memory, particularly in low-frequency climate phenomena in higher latitude regions, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (Mochizuki et al., 2010; Chikamoto et al., 2013; Doblas-Reyes et al., 2013; Chikamoto et al., 2019). Recent research has uncovered some decadal predictability in land hydroclimate patterns in North America (Chikamoto et al., 2015) and marine ecosystems in the North Pacific (Chikamoto et al., 2016).

Data repository

Department of Plants, Soils and Climate, Utah State University
4820 Old Main Hill, Logan, UT 84322-4820, USA