Seasonal Drought Forecast For the Intermountain West

2025 Spring

Figure 1
Figure 2

Figure 1: Downscaled NMME forecasts for total precipitation (left) and anomalous precipitation (right) from May 2025 to July 2025 (MJJ) in the Western United States.

Figure 2: Downscaled NMME forecasts for average temperature (left) and anomalous temperature (right) from May 2025 to July 2025 (MJJ) in the Western United States.

Positive anomalies indicate above-average values for temperature or precipitation, while negative anomalies indicate below-average. Both temperature and precipitation anomalies are calculated as deviations from the mean from during the MJJ period from 2013-2023.

The NMME forecasts (Kirtman et al., 2014) were trained from 1982-2012 and then statistically downscaled using the analog method (Gutmann et al., 2022), with 4-kilometer PRISM data as the observational record (Daly et al., 2008). The analog method identifies historical patterns that closely match the forecast for a specific month and uses these patterns to refine the forecast based on the resolution of the observational dataset.

References


Bureau of Reclamation USU Experiment Station

This utility has been developed in partnership with the Bureau of Reclamation and the Utah Agricultural Experiment Station